Question 1.

1. What trend and pattern information does your organization pay attention to?

Our organization is purely reactive to significant external competitive forces within the commodity markets we sell into. Trends we look at are typically short term trends; those that affect the pricing structures of our raw materials. Impacts like political forces in China or decisions by our Department of Commerce drive pricing of raw materials in our markets. We respect to our market segments, we have a high dependency on the housing and construction markets therefore these markets are tracked to help budgeting efforts.

Question 2.

2. Could scenario planning be effectively used in your organization?

I think to some extend all organizations use scenario planning but more for short range planning as compared to long range strategic thinking. As an example we anticipate changes in exchange rate impact but only over the course of one budget cycle. Longer range thinking or planning might prove interesting and helpful in certain areas of our business… for instance where to take our levels of customer service. Since our industry follows other primary industries, scenario planning on how to bring our business faster to speed with respect to customer service would be a benefit.

Question 3.

3. In what ways could you personally use scenario planning?

I am considering looking at scenario planning from a personal standpoint; starting with financial planning. I would like to see how different investments over time would look and at the same time provide a sense of how I would “enjoy” those investments.

Question 4.

4. What do you see as the principal disadvantages of employing the scenario approach to strategic planning?

I have to partially agree with the text in the amount of time and human resources a large scale scenario planning endeavor would require. I guess it really depends on your business, markets and industry as to how scenario planning would help and what resources could be appropriated to support the program. Maybe smaller scale scenario planning events, say interdepartmental sessions might prove beneficial if the topics were broad enough.